Shentong Express (002468) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Significant Effect of Repurchase Transshipment Center, Profits Continue to High Growth
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue of 170.
1.3 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.
41%; realized net profit of 20.
49 ppm, an increase of 37 in ten years.
73%, deducting non-net profit 17.
20 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.
12% . Comments: Business scale: The company completed packaging volume 51 in the reporting period.
1.2 billion pieces, an increase of 31 in ten years.
13%, 34 of which were completed in the second half of the year.
6.8 billion, an increase of 38 in ten years.
44%, accounting for 67 of the expected parcel volume.
84%; single ticket price is 3.
33 yuan / piece, 0 for ten years.
1 yuan / piece, single ticket cost 2.
79 yuan / piece, 0 for ten years.
18 yuan / piece; the company’s courier business gross margin is 16.
24%, an annual decrease of 11.
It can be polished. Although the company is growing rapidly on the revenue side, the industry competition is still very fierce, leading to a decline in gross profit margin.
The repurchase work of transshipment centers continued to advance.
By the end of 2018, the company had 2,233 independent 成都桑拿网 outlets, an increase of 20 each year.
96%; In 18 years, the company increased the repurchase work of transshipment centers, and repurchased 15 transshipment centers from franchisees. By the end of 2018, it had 68 transshipment centers, of which only 8 were non-self-operated.
The acquisition of the transshipment center is an important change in the “one game” strategy of continuing the merger of the company’s transit layout, which helps the company to strengthen the standardized construction, standardized operation and refined management of the transshipment center, and comprehensively improve the technological development and sorting timeliness of the transshipment center.
The cold chain is starting, and the higher gross margin is worth looking forward to.
In terms of cold chain, in 2018 the company established a cold chain subsidiary, Shanghai Shenxue, and began to enter the cold chain field. It has now covered Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other regions such as Shanghai, Suzhou, Ningbo, and the average cold storage utilization rate has reached 84.
25%, the cold chain business realized income of 7.39 million yuan, accounting for a relatively small but gross margin reached 44.
55%, far higher than the main express delivery business, and future development is worth looking forward to.
Sell Fengchao and hug Ali.
1) The purchase and sale of shares in Fengchao in June 18 increased the profit after tax2.
9.8 billion, marking one of the cooperation notices with SF in smart express cabinets; 2) Ali Yi 46.
600 million shares in Shentong will indirectly hold 14.
65% equity, as the most important customer of express delivery, the stake in Shentong will help it better connect with the rookie platform, and it is also an important alternative for Ali to improve its own logistics network. Shentong is also expected to obtain more from AliSingle amount.
Considering that the company may continue to seize the market by reducing unit prices in 19 years, and the possible short-term impact of performance by the expansion of the cold chain, but the expansion of scale and scale effects will translate into performance, which is beneficial to profits after 2020.Revise the profit forecast for 2020 and increase the profit forecast for 2021, and forecast net profit for 2019-2021 to be 22 respectively.
3.5 billion, 29.
8.1 billion, 38.
2.4 billion (originally 23 in 2019 and 2020).
7.8 billion, 28.
8.6 billion), corresponding EPS is 1.46 yuan, 1.
95 yuan, 2.
50 yuan, corresponding to PE is 18 times, 13 times, 10 times; target price of 37.
2 yuan unchanged, maintain BUY rating.
Risk reminder: The scale of the macro economy and the decline in online shopping will reduce the express delivery volume.