Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Results Meet Expectations, Save External Business and Maintain High Growth

Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Results Meet Expectations, Save External Business and Maintain High Growth

Event: Guangzhou Restaurant released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved revenue of 24 in the first three quarters of 2019.

09 billion / + 19.

60%, net profit attributable to mothers3.

25 billion / + 9.

12%; net profit after deduction to mother 3.

11 billion / + 7.

88%, non-recurring gains and 杭州夜网论坛 losses of 14.36 million were mainly due to changes in accounting estimates and investment income from wealth management products.

In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 14.

5.7 billion / + 19.

19%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

6.1 billion / + 8.

86%, net profit after returning to mother 2.

59 ppm / + 10.

85%.

  Opinion: Revenue: The company’s revenue and profit growth rates are in line with expectations, and various businesses are developing in a balanced manner.

In terms of different industries, the mooncake / quick-frozen food / other food / catering business achieved revenue of 10 respectively.

6.3 billion / 3.

9.9 billion / 4.

22 billion / 4.

9.9 billion, with annual growth of 17% / 31% / 24% / 14%, respectively, these businesses are in line with expectations.

The mooncake business can still maintain a growth rate of nearly 20% under the severe difficulties of the industry, which shows the company’s leading character.

Expenses: Sales expense rate 26.

35% /-1.

04pct, management expense ratio 9.

70% / + 1.

18pct, R & D expense ratio 1.

79% / + 0.

67%, financial expense ratio -0.

80% / + 0.

02pct, the decline in sales expense ratio indicates that the company’s brand value is increasing, and the increase in management expenses is mainly due to the increase in labor costs and distribution incentive costs.

Profitability: The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 54.

34% /-0.

59pct, net interest rate 13.

45% /-1.

36 points.

Advance receipts: The growth rate of advance receipts is a leading indicator of the company’s performance growth.

The growth rate of the company’s advance receipts in 19Q3 was -23.

2%, single-quarter revenue is expected to increase slightly in 19Q4.As Q4 revenue accounts for a relatively small proportion, it is expected that the company’s scale revenue growth will be about 19%.

  In terms of channels: the company’s direct sales revenue is 10.

9.3 billion / + 17.

05%, distribution income is 12.

90 billion / + 22.

76%.

Regionally: the company’s revenue in Guangdong is 18.

7.1 billion / + 14.

50%, the income outside Guangdong is 4.

8.4 billion / + 43.

94%, the company’s business outside the province still maintained rapid growth.

In terms of dealers: As of 19Q3, the number of dealers in the company’s Guangdong Province was 434 / + 15.

12%, the number of dealers outside Guangdong Province was 207 / + 21 chain.

05%, the expansion of dealers outside the province accelerated.

  The growth of the company’s food manufacturing business results from price increases + production capacity releases + expansion outside the province, and the catering business performance growth comes from newly opened stores + rising turnover.

Release of production capacity: The mooncakes at Xiangtan Factory were put into production, and the national market was deepened.

In August 2019, the mooncake business of the Likou Fuxiangtan plant was officially put into production. It is expected that the capacity of the Xiangtan plant will be quickly frozen, and the production capacity of wax flavor will be released by June 2020.

Likoufu Guangzhou and Likoufu Meizhou food production base will gradually reach output in 2022. Mooncake, frozen food, wax flavor, and other new capacity are expected to reach zero.

62, 3.

1.

0, 1.

4 years.

Expansion outside the province: The business outside the province maintained a high growth rate, and the expansion of dealers outside the province accelerated.

The company actively expanded its business outside the province. As of 19Q3, the company’s income outside the province maintained a high growth rate of 44%. The number of dealers outside the province was 207, an increase of 21 from the previous month.

05%, higher than the number of dealers in the province, business expansion outside the province is smooth.

New stores opened: The company plans to add 1-2 new stores every year, and it will gradually release its performance.

  Investment suggestion: In the context of rapid macro growth, the company, as a food and catering company, has a countercyclical nature.

  The company’s growth path is clear, the logic is gradually realized, and it has long-term configuration significance.

It is estimated that the company’s total operating 南京桑拿网 income for 2019-2021 will be 30.

45 billion / 36.

19 billion / 42.

9.8 billion, net profit attributable to mother is 4.

2.8 billion / 4.

9.2 billion / 5.

9.3 billion, corresponding to PE is 30 times / 26 times / 21 times.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: food safety risks; economic downside risks; capacity expansion is not up to expectations